Unmet Need
The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID- 19) in the United States was identified on 20 January 2020 in a returned traveler from Wuhan, China. By early August 2020, about one quarter of the world's cases and deaths were in the United States. Outcomes range from asymptomatic infection to death. Age; sex; smoking; race; body mass index (BMI); inflammatory markers; lymphopenia; and comorbid conditions, such as hypertension and diabetes, have emerged as risk factors for severe outcomes. Although older age is an important risk factor for hospitalization and death, younger people may develop severe disease. Further definition of hospital admission factors that predict poor outcomes may help to inform allocation plans for potentially scarce resources, such as ventilators and therapeutics, and help guide discussions with patients and families.
Technology Overview
Johns Hopkins researchers have reported a comprehensive analysis of the clinical features, patient trajectories, and risk factors for progression to severe disease or death at the time of hospital admission among all patients admitted to our hospital system and used these data to develop the COVID-19 Inpatient Risk Calculator (CIRC) to quantify the probability of progression to severe disease or death among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.
Stage of Development
The model is completed.
Publications
Garibaldi B, et al. Annals of Internal Medicine 174, 1, 2021
